Nintendo has released what analysts are describing as a "cautious" sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2, projecting 15 million console units and 45 million software units to be sold during its current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is scheduled to launch globally on June 5.

In its financial report, Nintendo stated that the forecast assumes the current U.S. tariff rates—implemented on April 10—remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely in order to respond effectively to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo noted in its statement.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as “conservative.” He suggested on social media that Nintendo is likely factoring in uncertainties surrounding tariffs, pricing, and production timelines, despite strong pre-order momentum. Ahmad also noted that if the tariff situation improves, Nintendo may revise its forecast upward later in the year.

However, he emphasized that significant challenges are already in motion, creating a complex environment for the console’s launch. “Not to mention the looming threat of increased tariffs,” Ahmad added, highlighting the broader economic pressures affecting global supply chains and consumer demand.

It's worth noting that achieving 15 million units in its first year would make the Switch 2 one of the most successful console launches in history. This figure would surpass the original Switch’s first-year sales of 14.87 million units—a strong benchmark set nearly a decade ago.

Were you able to preorder a Nintendo Switch 2?

Yes!No!I am waiting until it actually releases

AnswerSee ResultsDemand for the Switch 2 appears to be exceptionally high. After an initial delay attributed to tariff-related concerns, pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 officially launched on April 24. The console remains priced at $449.99—and unsurprisingly, demand has far outpaced availability.

Additionally, Nintendo has issued a notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, warning that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand. For more details, check out IGN’s Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.